上記のチャートを見ていると、どうやら78ぐらいまでは下がりそうだ。
米ドル･円はクロス円の円売り圧力で一進一退の動きが続きそうだが、明確に１．４０ドルを越えたユーロ･ドルやその他ドルストレートは売りであろう。
Yen sell off?
I think steepening G7 bonds' yield except those of Japans', the Yield play continues and yen carry trade favour again yen crosses move up.
I pick eur/jpy,gbp/jpy and commodity related aud/jpy those among majors move up in my opinion.
carry play?
Japanese yen retreated yesterday.
US durable goods number unexpectedly up,bond auction was so good and stocks were up.
So why not to sell Yen for a carry play.
The successful auction in USA
"The third tranche of US Treasury auctions did not quite match the upbeat results from the previous two, but was broadly in line with market expectations. The bid/cover ratio for the $26 bln worth of 7-year notes on offer was 2.26 times (YTD average 2.3 times) while indirect participants soaked up 33% of the issuance. US bond yields were very much in the spotlight again overnight, recouping some of the losses from the previous session with the 10-year yield dipping 11bp to 3.61%.
In the wake of the successful auction this week, Fed’s Fisher, a non-voting member of the FOMC this year, squashed the recent market chatter that there had been continued demand from foreign central banks for longer-term maturities and this was borne out by the auction results. He also maintained his more cautious approach to the economic outlook, reiterating his view that the unemployment rate could reach 10%. Following his recent visit to China, he also commented that there was little evidence that China wants to significantly shift its dollar portfolio, adding that China had no desire to harm the US’ financial markets as the interests of both parties were inter-connected. As an aside, note that this morning South Korea’s National Pension Fund said would reduce its exposure to US bonds and diversify onto other assets. However, the Pension Fund’s current holdings of US bonds account for 83% of its foreign bond holdings which only total $8.5 bln. Fisher also believed that the US’ coveted AAA rating, which has grabbed a few headlines of late, was not at risk of a downgrade and attributed the recent steepening in the yield curve to possibly supply concerns but also on increased confidence towards the economy." source-saxo bank
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has not moved beyond to 1.40 level,so far I can not find strong reasons to see EUR/USD break
that level until stronger economic figures.
that level until stronger economic figures.
Chile stock market VS U.S. Dow Jones industrial average
Very strong chile's economy is much stronger after Banco Central de Chile(central bank of Chile) cut interest rate from 1.75% to 1.25% which is historical lowest level 7th May.
The expart is saying that their economy in a recession and the central bank will need more easing policy ,can be quantitative easing policy which buys bonds.
Well,I saw the chart above, Chile economy seems so strong,except the inflationary worries in the future.
source-market watch,emerginvest
I turn to see the U.S cooprate bonds market
After U.S. consumer confidence showed a jumped number yesterday, U.S.stocks surged.
For the credit bonds market,situation is not much difference,just stayed current revel.
But the market participants see the situations turn modestly better.
source-WSJ
イスラエルの通貨防衛
通常、経済危機下における新興国の通貨防衛といえばアジア通貨危機当時、今般の世界経済危機で見られるように対外資本の逃避から自国通貨が安くなる傾向があるのは周知のとおりだと思う。（例えば、韓国ウオン）
しかし、イスラエルは今回の世界経済危機に際して自国通貨高に苦しみイスラエルシェケル売り・米ドル買いのオペレーションを繰り返しているという。
その効果は外貨準備の潤沢化、懸念材料は輸出企業の競争力減退などが考えられる。
source-bloomberg,fuji sankei
chart-exchange-rate.com
米財務省証券入札への高い関心
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米国債券市場では、同国財務省が行う総額１０１０億ドルの米国債の大型入札が注目だ。
同省は２６日に４００億ドルの２年債、２７日に３５０億ドルの５年債、２８日に２６０億ドルの７年債の入札を実施する予定。入札規模は４月に記録した過去最高の発行総額と同程度だ。
米国の長期金利は傾斜化しており、ゼロ金利政策を通じて足もとの金利は地を這う水準だが、経済危機を通じて国家予算が膨張しており国家債務も膨らんでいる。
債務を債券発行を通して調達しようにも投資家が購入してくれなければ、入札を不調または最悪な未達となってしまう。
そうなれば、ドル安、株安、債券安、商品安のフォース安の可能性もあながち否定できない。
The surge in distressed loans in South korea
South Korean economy looks performing very well in the financial crisis,but bad loans problem people can see all over the world,they have a same issue there.
Brazil intevend to the currency market
Brazil intervened to the currency market, sold the Brazilian Real buy the u.s.dollar operations to guard from overshooting real which
supposed 2.0real against 1 u.s.dollar could be critical zone.
source-nikkei net
The U.S.dollar declined the lowest level in 2009
S%P downgrades UK credit outlook concerns U.S. assets.
The U.S dollar,bonds sold and stocks fall.
The FRB indicated some policy makers insisted the central bank need to boost its purchases of assets,renewing concern more the dollar into the market.
Currency volatility and The vix were down, also three month dollar Libor down 0.04 %
to 0.72 %.
source-traderslog
China picks up more U.S. short term bills less long term bonds
Although China has purchased the long term Treasury bonds, in last few months they like more the treasury bills.
It`s considered that China fears
- The inflation would come in America.
- U.S.dollar less valued.
- After the world economy shrinked,Chinese government`s foreign reserve have decreased.
- for a rapid growth in domestic market, they needs the commodities related deserve(particularly in gold). -related articles
source-The New York Times ,
Curde oil continued up on the NYME
As long as the u.s. dollar weakness continued and the stock market sentiment is in good mood from the worst time, the oil future slides to rise in New York.
The u.s. residents favour taking a risk to the overseas, in my opinion the greenback will not appreciated much.
source-Xinhuanet
ホクトが最高益
日本ガイシ
同社は、2009年3月期連結決算が54.6%経常減益などとなった影響から、株価は下落傾向にあるものの、ドイツ、フランスの電力会社にNAS電池を供給するなど、優れた技術に裏打ちされた需要があるようだ。
Hungarian Forint Recovered(1)
Hungary's macro fundamentals remain poor ,but the local currency Hungarian Forint recovered from the worst times.
the market participants are willing to accept Forint appreciation with a little surprise.
The forint is considered a very sensitive currency against risk appetite.
As long as the invester take a risk,the next target of forint would be 300 forint aginst 1 euro.
source-forbes
India buying
After the Congress Party’s decisive victory over the weekend,Indian stock market soars 17% and Indian Rupee Jumps To Near 5-month High.
And also Morgan Stanley ups India.
source-India post election(nytimes)
risk aversion
The worrisome of the global economy lead the u.s dollar and the Japanese yen sored again after EU economy showed tough situations last week.
ユーロの巻き戻し(2)
一方、発表されたユーロ圏の第１四半期のGDPは－2.5％となり、前期の－1.6％の落ち込みから更に下げ幅を拡大した。（前年同期比では－１０%）
欧州圏の景気対策が日米に比べて、量、スピードとも劣る感は免れない。
しかし、現在の市場の眼は徐々に米債発行残高増にともなう米ドル不安と株価が徐々に回復してきたことによるリスク資産選好の動きが強まっており、資源新興国への資金シフトが続いているようだ。
したがって、米ドル、ユーロともに積極的に買える内容ではない雰囲気にあると思う。
ユーロの巻き戻し
原因として考えられるのが、
・リスク選好の動きが再活発化していること⇒米株価との相関性が高いため、株価次第
・産油国の外貨準備が分散化していること⇒原油高が続くかによる
・欧州中銀の「量的緩和」が欧州圏景気を下支えする期待感⇒政策効果の不透明感
china economy
China's extraordinary lending boom already is raising the specter of another nonperforming loan crisis like the 1990s.
China’s Investment Surges 30.5%; Exports Decline
source-bloomberg
People's Daily said Cautious approach to China's continuing economic recovery
source-People's Daily Online
currencies,stocks up and bonds outperformed.
source-wsj
Fund managers say debt markets still lack buyers
Debt fund managers see faint signs of life in the credit and mortgage markets, but a lack of trading and the disappearance of traditional buyers still weigh on prices.
source-reuters
the world’s second-best performing major currency this year.
Brazil’s real rose for the first time this week on speculation higher stock prices and increased demand for commodities will sustain gains for the world’s second-best performing major currency this year.
The real climbed 1.3 percent to 2.0867 per U.S. dollar at 4:05 p.m. New York time.
source-bloomberg
The yen fell against the euro
as a gain in stocks encouraged investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded with Japan’s currency.
Banks’ costs to borrow yen for three months fell to a two- year low of 0.54 percent in London, less than half the amount for similar-maturity euro loans, according to the British Bankers’ Association.
source-bloomberg
日経商品指数42種
日経商品指数42種は、日本経済新聞社が開発した、日経商品指数17種の品目を42種に拡充した総合指数（商品価格指数）で、42種の商品を9つの商品群に分けた類別指数もある。本指数は、1970年の平均価格を100として品目ごとのウエート付けをしないで算出され、また内閣府の景気動向指数の先行指数の一つにも採用されている。（日本経済新聞への掲載開始は1975年7月）
＜日経商品指数42種の構成品目の区分＞鋼材、非鉄金属、繊維、木材、化学、石油製品、紙、食品、その他
日経商品指数42種の主な構成品目
繊 維、綿糸、アクリル糸、ナイロン糸鋼 材棒鋼、山形鋼、Ｈ形鋼非 鉄銅地金、アルミニウム地金、黄銅丸棒木 材ヒノキ正角、合板、米ツガ正角化 学カセイソーダ、ポリプロピレン、塩化ビニール樹脂石 油ガソリン、軽油、Ｃ重油紙・ 板紙古紙、上質紙、段ボール原紙食 品砂糖、大豆、大豆油その他セメント、天然ゴム
＜日経商品指数42種の構成品目の区分＞鋼材、非鉄金属、繊維、木材、化学、石油製品、紙、食品、その他
日経商品指数42種の主な構成品目
繊 維、綿糸、アクリル糸、ナイロン糸鋼 材棒鋼、山形鋼、Ｈ形鋼非 鉄銅地金、アルミニウム地金、黄銅丸棒木 材ヒノキ正角、合板、米ツガ正角化 学カセイソーダ、ポリプロピレン、塩化ビニール樹脂石 油ガソリン、軽油、Ｃ重油紙・ 板紙古紙、上質紙、段ボール原紙食 品砂糖、大豆、大豆油その他セメント、天然ゴム
Buy Commodities, Sell Treasurys
Macro Hedge Funds are targeting to buy commodities,sell treaserys.
Why?
China needs more commodites for their industries and us issued more bonds, will be issued more more bonds.
source-WSJ
Pampa Energia
The company reported it's 1st-qtr net profit rises up to 58.1 million pesos ($15.3 million).
source-reuters
ECB｢量的緩和」へ
量的緩和とは、政策金利以外の方法で金融を緩和する方法を指す。
しかし、例えばBNPパリバ証券の河野龍太郎氏は「中銀のバランスシートが膨らむような政策」を「量的緩和」と言う。
金利水準がゼロ近傍になったり、景気の大幅悪化に見舞われた時など、金利変更のみで対応できない場合、金融政策の浸透が期待できないことがある。
そういった非常事態に対処するため、政策当局は伝統的な政策金利の変更といった手段を一歩踏み込み、例えば長期国債や社債の購入などを通じて金融市場に潤沢な資金を供給する。また、リスク資産の購入で金融市場全体のリスクを軽減する役割も果たす。
日銀の場合は、2001年から06年から当座預金残高を金融政策の目標として「量的緩和｣と呼んだ。
5月７日の欧州中銀の理事会において政策金利を1.0%に利下げする一方、足元金利だけではなく中長期的な金利低下を狙うため、通常3ヶ月以内の短期貸し出しオペを6ヶ月から今回は1年まで延長した。
同時に間接金融が根強い欧州で金融機関が発行する金融債を引き受け、事業法人への資金供給を促したい格好となった。
欧州中銀の問題：
・インフレ懸念から量的緩和の導入が遅れた。
・加盟16カ国なる欧州中銀の場合、どの国債をどのくらい買うか明確でない。
・社債は主要国の高格付け会社に偏る。
多数参加型の欠点が露呈。
ユーロ圏では、金融緩和を進めすぎるとユーロの信任が揺らぎ、物価上昇リスクが高まる懸念。
金利緩和の余地乏しいと言った声も聞こえるようだ。
FRBは金融危機以後、証券化商品の購入を通じて資金供給したが、長期国債の購入にも踏み切り市場に強い資金供給姿勢を明らかにした。
英中銀は6ヶ月連続で政策金利を引き下げ、今年3月に量的緩和に踏み込んだ。
・資金供給量を増やすため、量的緩和実施期間を3ヶ月から6ヶ月まで延長
・国債、社債の買い取り額を1250億ポンドと500億ポンド増額
・これ以上の利下げ効果は乏しいとの判断から、政策金利は0.5％で据え置いた。
US Nonfarm payroll employment
continued to decline in April(-539,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.5 to 8.9percent. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.7million jobs have been lost. In April, job losses were large and widespread across most private-sector industries.Overall, private-sector employment fell by 611,000.
source-bls
stress-test results table
source-cnn
| Bank | Ticker | Total assets | Market value | Worst-case loss estimate | Capital needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America | BAC | $1.6 trillion | $86.5 billion | $136.6 billion | $33.9 billion |
| Wells Fargo | WFC | $1.1 trillion | $105.1 billion | $86.1 billion | $13.7 billion |
| GMAC1 | N/A | $172.7 billion | $225 million | $9.2 billion | $11.5 billion |
| Citigroup | C | $996.2 billion | $21 billion | $104.7 billion | $5.5 billion |
| Regions Financial | RF | $116.3 billion | $3.6 billion | $9.2 billion | $2.5 billion |
| SunTrust | STI | $162 billion | $6.6 billion | $11.8 billion | $2.2 billion |
| Morgan Stanley | MS | $310.6 billion | $29.4 billion | $19.7 billion | $1.8 billion |
| KeyCorp | KEY | $106.7 billion | $3.4 billion | $6.7 billion | $1.8 billion |
| Fifth Third Bancorp | FITB | $112.6 billion | $3.1 billion | $9.1 billion | $1.1 billion |
| PNC | PNC | $250.9 billion | $19.8 billion | $18.8 billion | $600 million |
| JPMorgan Chase | JPM | $1.3 trillion | $132.4 billion | $97.4 billion | $0 |
| Goldman Sachs | GS | $444.8 billion | $67.3 billion | $17.8 billion | $0 |
| MetLife | MET | $326.4 billion | $26 billion | $9.6 billion | $0 |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | $230.6 billion | $34.4 billion | $15.7 billion | $0 |
| Bank of New York Mellon | BK | $115.8 billion | $34 billion | $5.4 billion | $0 |
| State Street | STT | $69.6 billion | $16.4 billion | $8.2 billion | $0 |
| Capital One Financial | COF | $131.8 billion | $10.4 billion | $13.4 billion | $0 |
| BB&T | BBT | $109.8 billion | $14.2 billion | $8.7 billion | $0 |
| American Express | AXP | $104.4 billion | $30.3 billion | $11.2 billion | $0 |
1GMAC is co-owned by General Motors and Cerberus Capital Management
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