翻って、米国も最悪。3.7トリオン米ドルの財政赤字拡大路線。
両政府とも、不況の中厳しい財政政策が要求されている。
sourece-読売、
日米財政赤字
日本の税収は３６・９兆円（戦後最悪の数字）に対し、来年度の概算要求は95兆円で借金の国債は50兆円以上発行される可能性。
翻って、米国も最悪。3.7トリオン米ドルの財政赤字拡大路線。
両政府とも、不況の中厳しい財政政策が要求されている。
sourece-読売、
翻って、米国も最悪。3.7トリオン米ドルの財政赤字拡大路線。
両政府とも、不況の中厳しい財政政策が要求されている。
sourece-読売、
CIT Presses U.S. Regulators for Aid -bloomberg
`Treasury officials have indicated in talks that they are reluctant to deploy funds from the $700 billion bank-rescue program.`
source-bloomberg
goldman sachs and CIT group
While the investors await goldman sachs earnings,CIT is facing a quite difficult situation.
R.I.P., CIT?-The new york times
Ｉs US economy growth without employment?
"Now the fact is that unemployment is so serious and duration it takes for Americans to find a job has only lengthened.
These statistics clearly show the severity of the current situation. Here you can easily see why this is not a garden variety post-WWII recession, but something very different.The current plunge is structural, not cyclical. Most of the jobs lost will never come back. The real estate bubble severely distorted the economic structure. Now the world economy has a lot of rebalancing to do. And this process will last much, much longer than the “green shoots” crowd deems possible.
My suggestion for you today is to watch the stock market for hints of the beginning of the next stage of this crisis. Watch unemployment and world trade as reliable indicators of the severity of the slump. And then watch California to get a feel for the next important act of this economic and financial drama: The government funding crisis and all its related repercussions. "
source-commdity online
I have many questions against this idea.
- It`s ok if US economy and the stock prices are going up led by competitive world leading companies along with the world economies showing bright sign, but as long as deepen unemployment concerns occur serious social problems.
- Deleverging in household sectors means less consumptions,not easy situations for job seeker less consumption.
- The low Credit small-mid sized companis will face more difficutlies to find credit line,because it has been seen Japan for the bankers they invest to the bonds market rather than lend money to companies. Its easy way.
- The cash is king!!!!
中国、資産バブルか？
今年度上半期ですでに中国国内での融資増加額は７兆元（約100兆円）を超え、すでに2008年の通年実績の1.4倍に達した。ほとんどは株式や不動産に流れ込んで資産バブルの懸念。先進国経済\の落ち込みが激しい中で輸出が伸び悩み景気に先行き不安が残る。
中国政府は金融危機対応の緊急措置を終わらせる「出口戦略」に苦慮している模様。
China Needs to Keep Reining in Loans, Researcher Says
World Dollar
World Dollar is increasing again as FRB easing monetary policy functions much.
In last few weeks, we saw US bonds auction has been in good mood, many bidders for bonds from the overseas.
Actually bidder/offer ratio was historycally high, I guess these are because the US dollar flowed outside US is coming back to US .
Why? The US bonds market is NO.1 cash market in the world.
(World dollar:indies which shows how much US dollar spreads over the world ,the money in total amount of US monetary base
and foreign countries` reserve including US Treasury bonds and US agency bonds.)
Central banks moved this week
- Peru central bank cut key interest rate 100 basis points to 3% source-bloomberg
ECB keep the interest rate
4 June 2009 - Monetary policy decisions
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 1.00%, 1.75% and 0.25% respectively.
source-ECB
ECB Purchase programme for covered bonds
ECB Purchase programme for covered bonds
Following-up on its decision of 7 May 2009 to purchase euro-denominated covered bonds issued in the euro area, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided upon the technical modalities today. These modalities are as follows:
The purchases, for an amount of EUR 60 billion, will be distributed across the euro area and will be carried out by means of direct purchases.
The purchases will be conducted in both the primary and the secondary markets.
In order to be eligible for purchase under the programme, covered bonds must:
be eligible for use as collateral for Eurosystem credit operations;
comply with the criteria set out in Article 22(4) of the Directive on undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS) or similar safeguards for non-UCITS-compliant covered bonds;
have, as a rule, an issue volume of about EUR 500 million or more and, in any case, not lower than EUR 100 million;
have, as a rule, been given a minimum rating of AA or equivalent by at least one of the major rating agencies (Fitch, Moody’s, S&P or DBRS) and, in any case, not lower than BBB-/Baa3; and
have underlying assets that include exposure to private and/or public entities.
The counterparties eligible to the purchase programme are those eligible for the Eurosystem’s credit operations, as well as euro area-based counterparties used by the Eurosystem for the investment of its euro denominated portfolios.
The purchases will start in July 2009 and are expected to be fully implemented by the end of June 2010 at the latest.
source-ECB
良い金利上昇か、悪い金利上昇か
米債利回りが上昇してきた。
問題は、米国内の金利上昇が健全な景気回復に基づくものかあるいは膨大な米財政赤字の埋め合わせの大量国債の吸収懸念とドル安懸念に由来するものかであろう。
この数カ月に渡って米株は上昇、その他先進国株も新興国株も上昇基調にある。また、昨日WTIの原油先物が4％上昇し1バレル＝70ドルに迫っている。
世界全体の実体経済は回復、リスク回避の動きは緩和基調が強まり、避難通貨に使われてきた円は米ドル以外の通貨に対して円安に向かうと思われる。
しかし、米市場に関しては、新生GMの誕生で目先の不安要素は一旦払しょくされた形だが、米家計部門はデレバレッジ（債務圧縮）にしばらくの時間がかかり、且つ雇用情勢の悪化が重しとなって、強い期待は持てない状況ではないであろうか。
取りあえず新発債の需要は強いことが証明されたが、期待インフレの高まりにともなう米国債の上昇は家計、企業にとって金利負担が増大すること意味しており、非常に痛みを伴うであろう。
当分、米景気は一進一退の展開から穏やかな上昇基調にあると見るのが合理的ではなかろうか。
確率的には
- 健全な景気回復 55％
- デフレーション 25％
- スタグフレーション 10％ と言ったところか。
source-marketwatch
Bundesbank President said
euro zone HCPI chart (consumer price index)
Bundesbank President Mr.Weber said"there is no real risk of deflation and buying assets to flood the economy with money is an unnecessary risk that could sow the seeds of future crises."
But ECB board members such as Slovenia’s Marko Kranjec and Cyprus’s Athanasios Orphanides are less certain and have indicated the ECB could buy a broader range of assets to fight the recession.
I think they need to buy more risky assets because even Euro zone CPI indication shows certain inflationary risk,down side risk strongly remains among their economies.
Tonight(in Tokyo time) ECB Mr.Trechiet speaks after ECB council.
source-bloomberg
欧米金融機関、融資態度厳格
欧米の金融機関による1年以上の長期貸し出しが渋っている。
金融不安は緩んでいるものの、GMなどをはじめ実体経済上でのデフォルトリスクが高まっているため、銀行の融資態度が厳格化している。また、与信余力が低下していることも否めない。
この傾向は企業の社債発行を促しているが、格付けが低い企業にとっては厳しい資金環境になりそうだ。
ただし、アジア太平洋地域では貸し渋りの傾向が特に強まっているとは考えらていないようだ。
米国景気、行き過ぎた債務過剰が負担
GSが家計の貯蓄志向、雇用情勢の悪化から「V字回復の可能性は低い」と指摘。
米国では2003年から08年までの間に法人部門、家計部門ともに40％強の借入を増やした。（huge!!)
増加額は企業で2兆1千億ドル、家計で4兆3千億ドルとなり膨大な債務負担がのしかかることが分かる。
ただ、企業部門は人員削減をしやすい米国文化の中で大胆なリストラを敢行しやすいが、家計部門は金融機関の融資態度の緩和と住宅価格の高騰を背景に借入を増やしたが、住宅担保価値の値下がりとこのところの長期金利上昇に伴う住宅ローン金利の上昇が非常に重くなっている。
可処分所得比債務利払い比率は20年前に比べ14％と7倍となっていると考えられている。
米家計部門の貯蓄率は現在、4％と日本よりは高いものの債務圧縮には更に10％程度まで比率を上げなければならないそうだ。
米GDP比率70％を占める個人消費の抑制が景気下押し圧力として働くのは明白と思われる。
日本の「失われて10年」以上に米国民は日本国民の比べて家計のゆとりはないため、米バブルの後遺症からの回復は非常に長い年月が必要だ。
そうなると、世界景気はより中国などの新興国頼りになっており、まして米国の国家債務は中国の2兆ドル、日本が1兆ドルと他国頼りの様相を深めており、世界経済が大幅に米国からのシフトを強めるのは自然な帰結となってきた。
欧州、長期金利上昇圧力高まる
ユーロ圏主要11カ国の今年度国債発行額が9000億ユーロ（前年比40％増）に達する見通しだ。
ドイツ国債利回りが上昇するに従い、ドイツ国債に金利を上乗せするユーロ各国の金利上昇が必須だ。
ユーロ圏の長期金利上昇は企業の資金コスト上昇を通じて、経済活動を委縮させ、通貨ユーロの動向にも影響を与えそうだ。
ドイツ、新規国債発行額476億ユーロへ
ドイツ政府は、今年度中に東西ドイツ統一後の財政負担（400億ユーロ）を上回る規模の国債を発行することを決定。
景気後退に伴う税収の減収と800億ユーロを超える景気対策が必要なため。
09,10年度の財政赤字は対GDP比で3％を超え、ユーロ圏の財政協定に抵触する恐れが強まっている。
9月の選挙戦に向け、政治的波乱要素となる一方、英国では戦後最大の国債発行を積み上げているなどアイルランドでは対GDP比がすでに7％を超えている。
Researchers say U.S.dollar overvalued
They say the greenback is seriously overvalued against the Chinese renminbi and some other Asian currencies. added to achieve equilibrium the U.S.dollar needs 40% devaluation toward the Chinese Yuan.
source-reuters
U.S.dollar rebound
After the interview form Asian financial officials,U.S.dollar recovered.
According to Reuters,Asian countries such as Japan,China continues buying U.S.assets for foreign reserve.
EUR/USD just has been sold for that news,but in my view recent overbought investors position made square.
The selling dollar sentiment in medium term will not be changed.
ロシア、IMF債購入へ一番乗りか
ロシア、中国などの新興国が主張する基軸通貨米ドルの代替として提唱しているSDR（米ドル、ユーロ、円、英ポンドからなる合成通貨）の活用に沿うようにロシアがIMF初のSDR建てとなろうIMF債（最大100億ドル）を購入する可能性が高まっている。
また、他のBRICs諸国も追随するとの思惑も広がっている。
source-nikkei net,西日本新聞
GM,破産法手続きは時間との勝負
しかし、優良資産の新会社への譲渡を破産裁判所が７月10日までに承認しない場合、政府が支援を打ち切る可能性があり、破産法手続きは時間との勝負になる。
source-nikkei
Bulgarian banking system sees no problems
According to report,their domestic banks are enough capitalized against the company default risk.
source-novinite.com
ドルインデックス
上記のチャートを見ていると、どうやら78ぐらいまでは下がりそうだ。
米ドル･円はクロス円の円売り圧力で一進一退の動きが続きそうだが、明確に１．４０ドルを越えたユーロ･ドルやその他ドルストレートは売りであろう。
Yen sell off?
I think steepening G7 bonds' yield except those of Japans', the Yield play continues and yen carry trade favour again yen crosses move up.
I pick eur/jpy,gbp/jpy and commodity related aud/jpy those among majors move up in my opinion.
carry play?
Japanese yen retreated yesterday.
US durable goods number unexpectedly up,bond auction was so good and stocks were up.
So why not to sell Yen for a carry play.
The successful auction in USA
"The third tranche of US Treasury auctions did not quite match the upbeat results from the previous two, but was broadly in line with market expectations. The bid/cover ratio for the $26 bln worth of 7-year notes on offer was 2.26 times (YTD average 2.3 times) while indirect participants soaked up 33% of the issuance. US bond yields were very much in the spotlight again overnight, recouping some of the losses from the previous session with the 10-year yield dipping 11bp to 3.61%.
In the wake of the successful auction this week, Fed’s Fisher, a non-voting member of the FOMC this year, squashed the recent market chatter that there had been continued demand from foreign central banks for longer-term maturities and this was borne out by the auction results. He also maintained his more cautious approach to the economic outlook, reiterating his view that the unemployment rate could reach 10%. Following his recent visit to China, he also commented that there was little evidence that China wants to significantly shift its dollar portfolio, adding that China had no desire to harm the US’ financial markets as the interests of both parties were inter-connected. As an aside, note that this morning South Korea’s National Pension Fund said would reduce its exposure to US bonds and diversify onto other assets. However, the Pension Fund’s current holdings of US bonds account for 83% of its foreign bond holdings which only total $8.5 bln. Fisher also believed that the US’ coveted AAA rating, which has grabbed a few headlines of late, was not at risk of a downgrade and attributed the recent steepening in the yield curve to possibly supply concerns but also on increased confidence towards the economy." source-saxo bank
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has not moved beyond to 1.40 level,so far I can not find strong reasons to see EUR/USD break
that level until stronger economic figures.
that level until stronger economic figures.
Chile stock market VS U.S. Dow Jones industrial average
Very strong chile's economy is much stronger after Banco Central de Chile(central bank of Chile) cut interest rate from 1.75% to 1.25% which is historical lowest level 7th May.
The expart is saying that their economy in a recession and the central bank will need more easing policy ,can be quantitative easing policy which buys bonds.
Well,I saw the chart above, Chile economy seems so strong,except the inflationary worries in the future.
source-market watch,emerginvest
I turn to see the U.S cooprate bonds market
After U.S. consumer confidence showed a jumped number yesterday, U.S.stocks surged.
For the credit bonds market,situation is not much difference,just stayed current revel.
But the market participants see the situations turn modestly better.
source-WSJ
イスラエルの通貨防衛
通常、経済危機下における新興国の通貨防衛といえばアジア通貨危機当時、今般の世界経済危機で見られるように対外資本の逃避から自国通貨が安くなる傾向があるのは周知のとおりだと思う。（例えば、韓国ウオン）
しかし、イスラエルは今回の世界経済危機に際して自国通貨高に苦しみイスラエルシェケル売り・米ドル買いのオペレーションを繰り返しているという。
その効果は外貨準備の潤沢化、懸念材料は輸出企業の競争力減退などが考えられる。
source-bloomberg,fuji sankei
chart-exchange-rate.com
米財務省証券入札への高い関心
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米国債券市場では、同国財務省が行う総額１０１０億ドルの米国債の大型入札が注目だ。
同省は２６日に４００億ドルの２年債、２７日に３５０億ドルの５年債、２８日に２６０億ドルの７年債の入札を実施する予定。入札規模は４月に記録した過去最高の発行総額と同程度だ。
米国の長期金利は傾斜化しており、ゼロ金利政策を通じて足もとの金利は地を這う水準だが、経済危機を通じて国家予算が膨張しており国家債務も膨らんでいる。
債務を債券発行を通して調達しようにも投資家が購入してくれなければ、入札を不調または最悪な未達となってしまう。
そうなれば、ドル安、株安、債券安、商品安のフォース安の可能性もあながち否定できない。
The surge in distressed loans in South korea
South Korean economy looks performing very well in the financial crisis,but bad loans problem people can see all over the world,they have a same issue there.
Brazil intevend to the currency market
Brazil intervened to the currency market, sold the Brazilian Real buy the u.s.dollar operations to guard from overshooting real which
supposed 2.0real against 1 u.s.dollar could be critical zone.
source-nikkei net
The U.S.dollar declined the lowest level in 2009
S%P downgrades UK credit outlook concerns U.S. assets.
The U.S dollar,bonds sold and stocks fall.
The FRB indicated some policy makers insisted the central bank need to boost its purchases of assets,renewing concern more the dollar into the market.
Currency volatility and The vix were down, also three month dollar Libor down 0.04 %
to 0.72 %.
source-traderslog
China picks up more U.S. short term bills less long term bonds
Although China has purchased the long term Treasury bonds, in last few months they like more the treasury bills.
It`s considered that China fears
- The inflation would come in America.
- U.S.dollar less valued.
- After the world economy shrinked,Chinese government`s foreign reserve have decreased.
- for a rapid growth in domestic market, they needs the commodities related deserve(particularly in gold). -related articles
source-The New York Times ,
Curde oil continued up on the NYME
As long as the u.s. dollar weakness continued and the stock market sentiment is in good mood from the worst time, the oil future slides to rise in New York.
The u.s. residents favour taking a risk to the overseas, in my opinion the greenback will not appreciated much.
source-Xinhuanet
ホクトが最高益
日本ガイシ
同社は、2009年3月期連結決算が54.6%経常減益などとなった影響から、株価は下落傾向にあるものの、ドイツ、フランスの電力会社にNAS電池を供給するなど、優れた技術に裏打ちされた需要があるようだ。
Hungarian Forint Recovered(1)
Hungary's macro fundamentals remain poor ,but the local currency Hungarian Forint recovered from the worst times.
the market participants are willing to accept Forint appreciation with a little surprise.
The forint is considered a very sensitive currency against risk appetite.
As long as the invester take a risk,the next target of forint would be 300 forint aginst 1 euro.
source-forbes
India buying
After the Congress Party’s decisive victory over the weekend,Indian stock market soars 17% and Indian Rupee Jumps To Near 5-month High.
And also Morgan Stanley ups India.
source-India post election(nytimes)
risk aversion
The worrisome of the global economy lead the u.s dollar and the Japanese yen sored again after EU economy showed tough situations last week.
ユーロの巻き戻し(2)
一方、発表されたユーロ圏の第１四半期のGDPは－2.5％となり、前期の－1.6％の落ち込みから更に下げ幅を拡大した。（前年同期比では－１０%）
欧州圏の景気対策が日米に比べて、量、スピードとも劣る感は免れない。
しかし、現在の市場の眼は徐々に米債発行残高増にともなう米ドル不安と株価が徐々に回復してきたことによるリスク資産選好の動きが強まっており、資源新興国への資金シフトが続いているようだ。
したがって、米ドル、ユーロともに積極的に買える内容ではない雰囲気にあると思う。
ユーロの巻き戻し
原因として考えられるのが、
・リスク選好の動きが再活発化していること⇒米株価との相関性が高いため、株価次第
・産油国の外貨準備が分散化していること⇒原油高が続くかによる
・欧州中銀の「量的緩和」が欧州圏景気を下支えする期待感⇒政策効果の不透明感
china economy
China's extraordinary lending boom already is raising the specter of another nonperforming loan crisis like the 1990s.
China’s Investment Surges 30.5%; Exports Decline
source-bloomberg
People's Daily said Cautious approach to China's continuing economic recovery
source-People's Daily Online
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