goldman sachs and CIT group

While the investors await goldman sachs earnings,CIT is facing a quite difficult situation.


R.I.P., CIT?-The new york times

米財政赤字、1兆ドル超える




景気減速で歳入減、自動車会社や金融機関への公的資金投入で、米赤字が1兆862億ドルに上り、さらに1兆8000億ドルを超える見通し。

Is US economy growth without employment?


"Now the fact is that unemployment is so serious and duration it takes for Americans to find a job has only lengthened.
These statistics clearly show the severity of the current situation. Here you can easily see why this is not a garden variety post-WWII recession, but something very different.

The current plunge is structural, not cyclical. Most of the jobs lost will never come back. The real estate bubble severely distorted the economic structure. Now the world economy has a lot of
rebalancing to do. And this process will last much, much longer than the “green shoots” crowd deems possible.

My suggestion for you today is to watch the stock market for hints of the beginning of the next stage of this crisis. Watch
unemployment and world trade as reliable indicators of the severity of the slump. And then watch California to get a feel for the next important act of this economic and financial drama: The government funding crisis and all its related repercussions. "



I have many questions against this idea.

  1. It`s ok if US economy and the stock prices are going up led by competitive world leading companies along with the world economies showing bright sign, but as long as deepen unemployment concerns occur serious social problems.
  2. Deleverging in household sectors means less consumptions,not easy situations for job seeker less consumption.
  3. The low Credit small-mid sized companis will face more difficutlies to find credit line,because it has been seen Japan for the bankers they invest to the bonds market rather than lend money to companies. Its easy way.
  4. The cash is king!!!!

中国、資産バブルか?

今年度上半期ですでに中国国内での融資増加額は7兆元(約100兆円)を超え、すでに2008年の通年実績の1.4倍に達した。ほとんどは株式や不動産に流れ込んで資産バブルの懸念。先進国経済\の落ち込みが激しい中で輸出が伸び悩み景気に先行き不安が残る。

中国政府は金融危機対応の緊急措置を終わらせる「出口戦略」に苦慮している模様。


China Needs to Keep Reining in Loans, Researcher Says

 

World Dollar

World Dollar is increasing again as FRB easing monetary policy functions much.

In last few weeks, we saw US bonds auction has been in good mood, many bidders for bonds from the overseas.
Actually bidder/offer ratio was historycally high, I guess these are because the US dollar flowed outside US is coming back to US .
Why? The US bonds market is NO.1 cash market in the world.

(World dollar:indies which shows how much US dollar spreads over the world ,the money in total amount of US monetary base
and foreign countries` reserve including US Treasury bonds and US agency bonds.)

Nikkei225

28000-28550 up in the early session, down lately.