ドルインデックス

上記のチャートを見ていると、どうやら78ぐらいまでは下がりそうだ。

米ドル･円はクロス円の円売り圧力で一進一退の動きが続きそうだが、明確に１．４０ドルを越えたユーロ･ドルやその他ドルストレートは売りであろう。

Yen sell off?

I think steepening G7 bonds' yield except those of Japans', the Yield play continues and yen carry trade favour again yen crosses move up.

I pick eur/jpy,gbp/jpy and commodity related aud/jpy those among majors move up in my opinion.

there’s less fear,then VIX down

VIX which is called fear index has been back to a normal track,as long as the world economy shows better signs.

source-bloomberg

carry play?

Japanese yen retreated yesterday.

US durable goods number unexpectedly up,bond auction was so good and stocks were up.

So why not to sell Yen for a carry play.

The successful auction in USA

The successful auction in USA

"The third tranche of US Treasury auctions did not quite match the upbeat results from the previous two, but was broadly in line with market expectations. The bid/cover ratio for the $26 bln worth of 7-year notes on offer was 2.26 times (YTD average 2.3 times) while indirect participants soaked up 33% of the issuance. US bond yields were very much in the spotlight again overnight, recouping some of the losses from the previous session with the 10-year yield dipping 11bp to 3.61%.

In the wake of the successful auction this week, Fed’s Fisher, a non-voting member of the FOMC this year, squashed the recent market chatter that there had been continued demand from foreign central banks for longer-term maturities and this was borne out by the auction results. He also maintained his more cautious approach to the economic outlook, reiterating his view that the unemployment rate could reach 10%. Following his recent visit to China, he also commented that there was little evidence that China wants to significantly shift its dollar portfolio, adding that China had no desire to harm the US’ financial markets as the interests of both parties were inter-connected. As an aside, note that this morning South Korea’s National Pension Fund said would reduce its exposure to US bonds and diversify onto other assets. However, the Pension Fund’s current holdings of US bonds account for 83% of its foreign bond holdings which only total $8.5 bln. Fisher also believed that the US’ coveted AAA rating, which has grabbed a few headlines of late, was not at risk of a downgrade and attributed the recent steepening in the yield curve to possibly supply concerns but also on increased confidence towards the economy." source-saxo bank

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has not moved beyond to 1.40 level,so far I can not find strong reasons to see EUR/USD break
that level until stronger economic figures.

Chile stock market VS U.S. Dow Jones industrial average

Very strong　chile's economy is much stronger after Banco Central de Chile(central bank of Chile) cut interest rate from 1.75% to 1.25% which is historical lowest level 7th May.

The expart is saying that their economy in a recession and the central bank will need more easing policy ,can be quantitative easing policy which buys bonds.

Well,I saw the chart above, Chile economy seems so strong,except the inflationary worries　in the future.

source-market watch,emerginvest

I turn to see the U.S cooprate bonds market

After U.S. consumer confidence showed a jumped number yesterday, U.S.stocks surged.

For the credit bonds market,situation is not much difference,just stayed current revel.

But the market participants see the situations turn modestly better.

source-WSJ

GMに破産法適用か

GMは２６日までの最終期限までに再建案の債権者からの同意を得られず、破産法適用の可能性が高まったようだ。

ドイツ・オペルの買収に新たに中国の北京汽車工業（ＢＡＩＣ）が手を挙げた模様。

source-reuters ,東京新聞,yahoo

日本、４月の貿易統計

日本の輸出、輸入ともに底を打ちつつある中、貿易黒字を計上した。

しかし、今回の経済危機で各国ともそうだが、世界貿易全体が縮小する中で、輸出も減り、輸入も減り、その差額が黒字だったというだけで、決して喜べるないようではない。

source-毎日jp

ウクライナ、リビアと交渉

両国は、ウクライナから穀物の輸出、リビアから天然ガスの輸出といった戦略的相互補完交渉を行っている。

source-nikkei net ,Kyiv Post

日本、世界最大の債権国

日本政府、企業、個人が持つ対外純資産残高は18年連続で世界最大の債権国となったようだ。

source-nikkei net

グアテマラの困難

現大統領がスキャンダルに巻き込まれ、政権運営のピンチに晒されている。

与党は先住民系が支持基盤、野党は白人エリート層といったステレオタイプの中南米図式となっている模様だ。

しかし、本気で投資家になりたければ、政治的なリスクを乗り越えて行かなければならないと個人的に考えている。

source-sankei

イスラエルの通貨防衛

通常、経済危機下における新興国の通貨防衛といえばアジア通貨危機当時、今般の世界経済危機で見られるように対外資本の逃避から自国通貨が安くなる傾向があるのは周知のとおりだと思う。（例えば、韓国ウオン）

しかし、イスラエルは今回の世界経済危機に際して自国通貨高に苦しみイスラエルシェケル売り・米ドル買いのオペレーションを繰り返しているという。

その効果は外貨準備の潤沢化、懸念材料は輸出企業の競争力減退などが考えられる。

source-bloomberg,fuji sankei

chart-exchange-rate.com

米財務省証券入札への高い関心

米国債券市場では、同国財務省が行う総額１０１０億ドルの米国債の大型入札が注目だ。

同省は２６日に４００億ドルの２年債、２７日に３５０億ドルの５年債、２８日に２６０億ドルの７年債の入札を実施する予定。入札規模は４月に記録した過去最高の発行総額と同程度だ。

米国の長期金利は傾斜化しており、ゼロ金利政策を通じて足もとの金利は地を這う水準だが、経済危機を通じて国家予算が膨張しており国家債務も膨らんでいる。

債務を債券発行を通して調達しようにも投資家が購入してくれなければ、入札を不調または最悪な未達となってしまう。

そうなれば、ドル安、株安、債券安、商品安のフォース安の可能性もあながち否定できない。

source-reuters,bloomberg,acm

The surge in distressed loans in South korea

South Korean economy looks performing very well in the financial crisis,but bad loans problem people can see all over the world,they have a same issue there.

source-chosen.com

Brazil intevend to the currency market

Brazil intervened to the currency market, sold the Brazilian Real buy the u.s.dollar operations to guard from overshooting real which

supposed 2.0real against 1 u.s.dollar could be critical zone.

source-nikkei net

The U.S.dollar declined the lowest level in 2009

S%P downgrades UK credit outlook concerns U.S. assets.

The U.S dollar,bonds sold and stocks fall.

The FRB indicated some policy makers insisted the central bank need to boost its purchases of assets,renewing concern more the dollar into the market.

Currency volatility and The vix were down, also three month dollar Libor down 0.04 %

to 0.72 %.

source-traderslog

China picks up more U.S. short term bills less long term bonds

Although China has purchased the long term Treasury bonds, in last few months they like more the treasury bills.

It`s considered that China fears

1. The inflation would come in America.
2. U.S.dollar less valued.
3. After the world economy shrinked,Chinese government`s foreign reserve have decreased.
4. for a rapid growth in domestic market, they needs the commodities related deserve(particularly in gold). -related articles

source-The New York Times ,

欧州版ストレステスト

EUが今年９月までに、域内の「銀行システム」の危機対応能力を測定する検査をすることを決定した。

マクロ経済と銀行セクターの連関性を確認するといった意味合いが強く、米国のように個別の銀行に課した検査とは様相が全く違う。

欧州の金融は、間接金融や商業銀行業が強く、域内の景気後退に伴って増加している不良債権に対処できるか疑問が呈されている。

source-毎日新聞, reuters

Curde oil continued up on the NYME

As long as the u.s. dollar weakness continued and the stock market sentiment is in good mood from the worst time, the oil future slides to rise in New York.

The u.s. residents favour taking a risk to the overseas, in my opinion the greenback will not appreciated much.

source-Xinhuanet

ホクトが最高益

キノコ製造大手のホクトが、景気後退の影響から進む自宅回帰の流れや食の安全志向に乗って、業績を拡大し、純利益を前期比３２%伸ばした。

国内市場でまだ市場を拡大する余地があり、業績の伸びを期待できそうだ。

company home page-日本語、English

日本ガイシ

同社は、2009年3月期連結決算が54.6%経常減益などとなった影響から、株価は下落傾向にあるものの、ドイツ、フランスの電力会社にNAS電池を供給するなど、優れた技術に裏打ちされた需要があるようだ。

日本ガイシがNAS電池の生産能力を増強。source-Tech-On！

欧州金融機関、融資態度緩和

ECBによる資金供給や公的資金の投入が奏功し、欧州金融機関の融資余力が増しているようだ。

source-nikkei net

Hungarian Forint Recovered(1)

Hungary's macro fundamentals remain poor ,but the local currency Hungarian Forint recovered from the worst times.

the market participants are willing to accept Forint appreciation with a little surprise.

The forint is considered a very sensitive currency against risk appetite.

As long as the invester take a risk,the next target of forint would be 300 forint aginst 1 euro.

source-forbes